Independent analysis · 12 slides
On the lists, not at the counter
Slide 1
Mumbai’s migrants are on lists. They are not at the counter. ₹5 crore should buy benefits received.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 2
Scope: three wards, informal workers under ₹15,000 a month, government as partner, 10% independent M&E.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 3
Published funnel (CLRA, n=1,012): awareness 71%, attempt 51%, served 30%. Mumbai baseline is a diagnostic, not this chart.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 4
B1 is paperwork at destination. Ration cards stay at source. Awareness campaigns do not open that gate.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 5
B2 is the FPS counter. Interstate portability is 0.8% of PDS. Dealer refusal and biometric failure are common in the cited studies.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 6
Four hypotheses in ninety days: where the funnel breaks; FCS MoU; unit cost under ₹2,000; interstate share.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 7
Option A: naka help desks and case management. Starts in month 3. Stops when the grant stops.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 8
Option B: dealer incentives and exception handling with FCS. Cheaper if the MoU exists. Hostage to the MoU.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 9
Weighted prior favours A (3.75 vs 2.95). The month-3 gate can reverse that if H1 and H2 both point to the counter.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 10
Recommendation: stage-gate. Default A. Buy the option on B with ₹50 lakh in one ward if the MoU is late.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 11
Operating model: CSO at the naka; FCS and BMC as partners; comparison ward; quarterly funnel; ePoS as tracer.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.
Slide 12
Risks: low interstate share; captured incentives; desks as parallel bureaucracy. Lists fail quietly. e-Shram is not a benefit.
Numbers, sources, the weighted matrix and the cost model live on the full strategy page. Print this view as a leave-behind. Independent analysis. Author estimates.